Trump’s America First Policy May Trigger Bitcoin–Nasdaq Decoupling, Says Macro Strategist

A bold shift in U.S. investment strategy may be paving the way for Bitcoin (BTC) to break its long-standing correlation with the Nasdaq. In a recent episode of the Coin Stories podcast, macro strategist Luke Gromen suggested that President Trump’s America First Investment Policy could redirect global capital away from traditional equity indices and into neutral, untouchable assets like Bitcoin.

Let’s explore what this means for crypto investors and the future of Bitcoin in a world of shifting capital flows.

What Is the America First Investment Policy?

Unveiled in February 2025, the America First Investment Policy memo outlines a new doctrine: prioritize U.S. national security and self-reliance over foreign investment. The Trump administration’s message to global capital—particularly from China—is clear:

“Take your money and go home, we don’t want it here anymore.”

This is not just rhetoric—it’s a strategic recalibration of foreign investment inflows, with real consequences for U.S. financial markets.

What This Means for the Nasdaq

Gromen, founder of macro research firm Forest for the Trees (FFTT), argues that the Nasdaq—long a haven for international capital—will experience a capital outflow as foreign investors scale back:

• High valuations and earnings multiples make Nasdaq stocks vulnerable.

• Rising protectionism may reduce the appeal of U.S.-based equities.

• Export-driven capital (e.g. Chinese tech funding) is likely to pull back.

In the short term, this could lead to downward pressure on tech stocks, even as other asset classes rise.

Bitcoin as a Global Neutral Reserve Asset

In contrast, Gromen believes Bitcoin is set to benefit from these changes:

“Bitcoin is a neutral reserve asset, linked to energy and uncontrollable by any government.”

Because BTC is not subject to tariffs, geopolitical sanctions, or central bank manipulation, it offers:

• Censorship-resistant liquidity

• Cross-border portability

• Scarcity and energy-backed value

These traits make it especially attractive to capital looking for safe harbor in a politically fragmented world.

Breaking the Correlation: Why It Matters

Historically, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have moved in tandem:

• Both are considered risk-on assets

• Traders use BTC as a high-beta play on tech sentiment

• Correlation has held during major macro events (e.g. COVID, inflation waves)

But Gromen notes that we’re starting to see periods of BTC outperformance—and that trend could accelerate.

“The America First memo may be the catalyst to finally separate Bitcoin from the Nasdaq.”

As capital gets rerouted, Bitcoin may start to decouple and trade more like a global commodity or reserve asset (e.g. gold).

Gold Is Already Moving—Is Bitcoin Next?

Gromen points to gold’s recent rally as a leading indicator:

• Central banks are stocking up

• Gold is gaining traction as a geopolitical hedge

• Institutional demand has increased in non-Western markets

Bitcoin could follow a similar path—but with added benefits like programmability, transparency, and 24/7 liquidity.

Bitcoin Today: Where Do We Stand?

At the time of writing (April 6, 2025), Bitcoin is trading at $83,233, having recovered from March lows but still shy of its 2025 high.

If macro flows accelerate toward Bitcoin, a break above $90K and eventual retest of the $100K level may be possible.

Keep track of daily market shifts with CryptoRadar.in, your hub for live prices and sentiment analysis.

Final Thoughts

President Trump’s investment doctrine could do more than shift capital—it could fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s market identity. Once viewed purely as a speculative tech asset, BTC may now evolve into a geopolitical safe haven.

If Gromen’s thesis holds true, we’re entering a new era where Bitcoin becomes less of a Nasdaq proxy and more of a standalone global reserve asset.

Author: CryptoRadar Team
Experts in Macro Strategy, Bitcoin Economics, and Global Asset Flows.